Monday, 14 March 2011

Stocks to Short

Stocks to Short:

HMV: Short@11p /Mkt Cap: £4.76bn

·        The Most shorted stock in the UK.
·        Paying the price for failing to embrace the internet much sooner
·        Furthermore, moves to diversify the product offering smack of desperation, with competition in clothing and electrical products already hugely intense
·        Shares in HMV Group have slumped almost 17% after it reported falling sales and deepening losses
·        Simon Fox (CEO) has had 5yrs in job to turn it around and failed! What else can he do, ships sinking, I’d get a new captain!

William Hill & Ladbrokes: Short@191p / @135p

·        Ladbrokes & William Hill: More betting going online and with many outlets overheads are high.
·        Also Betting on Horse racing is dwindling which is a key focus for these two
·        Also with stagnant UK Economy, less spare change in the pockets for people to go to the bookies and put on a bet.
·        Blackrock announced a large short on it recently.

Nestle: @52Chf / Mkt Cap 181m

·        Rising Cocoa prices due to the Civil war in Ivory Coast and subsequent EU import ban from Ivory Coast cocoa, which is the world’s largest Cocoa supplier in the world means Chocolate has become a lot more expensive and since it is not a necessity the high prices for chocolate will be passed onto consumers, but we’ll see demand fall (75p for a mars bar no surprise!!) and therefore profits will fall for Nestle. Doesn’t look to be priced into the market yet!

Stocks to Buy

Stock Picks – To Buy
Vedanta Resources: BUY @ 2,360p /Mkt Cap: £6.6bn (FTSE 100)
·        Diversified Mining Company
·        Large Operations in India
·        Indian Copper Mining Arm Sterlite had 42.6% primary market share by sales volume in India in 2008.
·        With a combination of lower copper exchange inventories, robust demand driven by emerging market urbanization & constrained copper supply outlook will sustain copper deficits and push prices up. Leaving Vedanta with a fantastic platform for gaining profits.

Novo Nordisk: Buy@ 682 Danish Kroner/Mkt Cap: $72bn
·        Today, NVO is the world's largest insulin maker, having sold $7.1 billion of insulin last year
·        More than 200 million people worldwide suffer from some form of diabetes
·        Worldwide insulin sales have quadrupled in the last decade to $15.4 billion
·        Last year, the company's overall sales were up 13% and are projected to grow at an 8% to 10% pace as far as the eye can see
·        Steady share price throughout the recession and people won’t stop treating diabetes due to inflation/double dip...safe bet for growth!

Siemens: BUY@ 97Euros /Mkt Cap: 85bn
·        Like many German firms, Siemens' growth is heavily dependent on exports of manufactured goods to China, Brazil, India and Russia, where the firm has invested aggressively in infrastructure.
·        China, where Siemens generated nearly 8% of group revenue last year, is the world's number one buyer of German engineering products. Until 2009, the US was the top exporter of such goods to China
·        High exposure to Emerging market and has got great platform in China (Increase in Urbanisation in China, Increase in telecoms)



British Airways: BUY@ 282p/Mkt Cap: £67bn
·        Still seen as having potential for further price gains next year despite the shares having gained 25 percent in the past six months, according to some analysts.
·        Perceptions of the company have changed dramatically since it posted a record loss of 541 million pounds for the year to March 2010, hurt by the recession and industrial disputes.
·        The impact of cabin crew strikes has not been as severe as some had feared, say analysts, who also see benefits coming from the forthcoming merger with Iberia IBLA.MC, which will create International Airlines Group, and a newly-approved transatlantic alliance with AMR Corp's American Airlines.
·        The Iberia merger alone is expected to yield about 400 million Euros of synergies and analysts predict combined revenue will grow to around $22 billion in 2012 from about $18 billion in 2011.


Sierra Wireless: BUY@ $10.44 /Mkt Cap: $324m (Nasdaq)
·        Sierra Wireless is expanding the wireless world with a comprehensive offering of hardware, software, and connected services for mobile lifestyles and machine-to-machine communications.
·        Had a 1Yr Return of 26%
·        Sierra Wireless is well positioned for strong 2011 EPS growth driven by strong mobile computing trends due to a 4G upgrade cycle and an expanding M2M pipeline
·        This Technology is only going to get more important in our everyday life